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To Know Your Enemy, You Must Become Your Enemy The global community continues to anxiously await the results of the ever-continuing nuclear negotiations between Iran and the P5+1. So far, Khamenei has played the West beautifully. By all measures, Iran is in a weaker position than the U.S. economically, socially, and politically. If sanctions against Iran continue, the regime will be unable to produce and sell oil. This will not only further ruin the Iranian economy, thus putting more pressure on the people inside Iran, but will also impact the extravagant lives of the corrupt officials in Iran, who until this point, have stolen billions of dollars from the Iranian purse. Despite these facts, until this point, the P5+1 have appeared more eager to reach an agreement than the Iranian negotiators. What is perhaps even more troubling is that even if Iranian officials give into the demands of the P5+1, and permit intrusive inspections by the IAEA, I believe that Khamenei and his posse might have a different end game in sight.
Recently, in response to the worst drought in 100 years, the North Korean ambassador to Tehran delivered a request to the Iranian Red Crescent for urgent humanitarian aid. I understand that North Korea may not want to seek help from Europe, the United States, or even the United Nations. However, with wealthy China right across the border and the currently isolated Russia a bit further north, does it make sense for nominally communist Pyongyang to seek help from the Islamic Republic of Iran? And would it make sense for the latter to provide aid to “godless infidels?” Obviously ideological consistency is not the primary motivating factor for the relationship between Tehran and Pyongyang. Therefore, something more may be at play. Given the secretive natures of the regimes in Pyongyang and Tehran, it is difficult to determine what exactly is happening behind the scenes. Yet, I believe it is likely that the basis for the relationship between the two nations may be cooperation on the development of nuclear weapons. Iran may agree to stop its enrichment of uranium inside its own borders; it may even agree to permit IAEA inspectors to visit and scrutinize every site – civilian and military – to the satisfaction of the P5+1 all the while it continues its nuclear activities inside the borders of the most secretive nation. By taking a hard stance on key provisions, insisting that Iran has a sovereign right and interest in denying IAEA inspectors the authority to inspect Iranian sites, and then finally giving into the demands of the P5+1 in the last hour, Khamenei would appear to be compromising. By working inside the borders of North Korea to enhance its nuclear capabilities, however, Iran may technically avoid violating any part of the potential agreement between Iran and the P5+1, ease the economic sanctions placed on Iran, and achieve his goal of making Iran a nuclear power. |
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