Ordinarily, if a leader of a nation does not make frequent public appearances, eyebrows are not raised. Iran, however, is a different case. At a time when political, social, and economic problems plague the nation, and the global community and Iran appear to be on the verge of a deal regarding Iran’s nuclear program, the Supreme Leader should be at the forefront of governing. It is also worth mentioning that from the conception of the Islamic Republic, its leaders have been hungry for attention. Hence, Khamenei’s absence deserves more attention than news outlets have recently provided.
Let’s explore each possibility a little further. Khamenei may have willingly decided to not make public appearances, at least temporarily. This may be because he desires to “wait and see” how the negotiations with Washington and the international community will ensue prior to taking an unambiguous position. Alternatively, he may have elected to be absent due to a lack of interest or because of other priorities.
The second scenario is that Khamenei is unable to decide what course of action to pursue. For whatever reason, Khamenei decided to support Rouhani against the wishes of the hardliners. Perhaps at the time, Khamenei did not have a full grasp of the potential implications of the Rouhani administration’s agenda. Nonetheless, he is now intricately involved in the fate of the current administration and must balance the political forces within Iran. This seemingly impossible task may have hindered his decision-making which may be one of the reasons behind his nonappearance.
It will be even more critical for the future of Iran if Khamenei has been persuaded to not make public appearances or announcements. If this is the case, then the “religious-military complex” has persuaded him to not address the public because doing so will either require him to abandon his own position or take a stand against his own advisers. If this is the case, it could potentially mean that the power of the “religious-military complex” is so great that even the “vali-e faqih” is frightened.
The fourth possibility is that Khamenei is simply unable to attend public events or make public announcements due to health reasons – either psychological or physiological. Should this be the case, those within the regime are undoubtedly planning for the smooth transition of power. While different camps within the hardliners may desire different replacements for the easily replaceable Supreme Leader, others with a stake in the future of Iran (and the global community), should also develop contingency plans for when Khamenei is erased through natural or unnatural causes.
Whether consciously or subconsciously, we often rely on a Messianic return or foreign intervention – via culture, economics, or force – to save us. Perhaps it is time that we put an end to the perpetual cycle of deterministic reliance on external forces. All segments of Iranian society must begin to think about and plan for the inevitable day when Khamenei is no longer in charge.